The United Kingdom imported more refined petroleum products than crude oil from Nigeria in the 12 months ended March 2026, a shift in the composition of bilateral energy trade that would have been unimaginable when Dangote Refinery was still a construction site, and Nigeria was buying back its own crude after shipping it abroad to be processed by foreign refineries.
Refined petroleum products accounted for £674.5 million, or 47.5% of all UK goods imports from Nigeria during the period, according to the Nigeria Trade and Investment Factsheet released by the UK Department for Business and Trade. Crude oil ranked second at £438.9 million, or 30.9% of total goods imports, while natural gas accounted for £179.3 million, or 12.6%.
UK crude oil imports from Nigeria plunged 64.3% compared with the preceding 12-month period, while natural gas imports rose 6.9%. Growth rates for refined products were suppressed in the official data where percentage changes exceeded 100% from a low base, an indication of how rapidly the refined product export category has scaled from a near-standing start.
The numbers capture the early commercial effect of Dangote Refinery reaching full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day in February 2026. Nigeria, which spent decades exporting crude at a discount and importing refined products at a premium, is now generating sterling-denominated export revenue from refined fuel rather than raw oil for the first time in a generation.
The overall bilateral trading relationship weakened despite the shift in composition. Total trade in goods and services between the two countries stood at £7.3 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2026, down 3.4%, or £258 million, year-on-year. UK exports to Nigeria slipped 0.9% to £5.3 billion, while imports from Nigeria fell more sharply by 9.3% to £2 billion. The UK recorded an overall trade surplus with Nigeria of £3.3 billion, up from £3.1 billion the previous year.
Refined oil was also the UK's largest goods export to Nigeria during the same period, with Britain exporting £725.6 million worth of refined petroleum products to the country, representing 51.2% of its total goods exports to Nigeria, despite a 44.7% year-on-year decline. That parallel decline confirms that the two-way refined product trade between the UK and Nigeria is rebalancing rather than disappearing: the UK is still Nigeria's largest refined fuel supplier, but it is supplying significantly less than it was while simultaneously buying significantly more.
The structural implication of the data is straightforward and historically significant. A country that has exported crude oil and imported the refined products made from it for forty years has, within twelve months of its domestic refinery reaching capacity, flipped that relationship with at least one major trading partner. Whether the UK data is a leading indicator of a broader shift in Nigeria's export composition will depend on whether Dangote Refinery sustains full-capacity operations through the second half of 2026, expands toward the 1.4 million barrels per day target by 2030, and whether the naira-for-crude arrangement with NNPC can be stabilised after the supply disruptions that forced a week-long suspension of naira-denominated loading in July. The UK trade data shows what is possible. The downstream pricing volatility of the past three months shows how fragile the conditions enabling it remain.
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