MTN Group Earnings Set to Quadruple as Nigeria, Ghana Drive Dramatic Turnaround

MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest mobile network operator, has projected that its full-year earnings will more than quadruple, driven by a sharp recovery in its Nigerian and Ghanaian operations following a turbulent 2024 marked by foreign exchange losses and macroeconomic instability.

In a trading statement issued Monday, the Johannesburg-based telco said it expects headline earnings per share of between R10.62 and R11.68 for the 12 months ended December 2025, marking a significant turnaround from the loss recorded in the prior year.

The company attributed the improvement to stronger operational performances in its key markets, particularly MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana, which together account for more than 40 per cent of group revenue.

“In our larger operations, MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana delivered robust results in their full-year earnings releases,” the company said, noting that improved revenue growth supported a return to profitability.

MTN Nigeria, the group’s single largest operation, reported a profit after tax of ₦1.1 trillion for 2025, a dramatic reversal from a loss of ₦400.4 billion in 2024. The turnaround was powered by surging data revenue, which grew 74.5 per cent year-on-year, and a massive foreign exchange gain of ₦1.1 trillion as the naira stabilised following the severe depreciation that ravaged earnings in 2024.

Service revenue climbed 34.1 per cent to ₦5.2 trillion, while EBITDA rose 35.7 per cent to ₦3.2 trillion. The company also resumed dividend payments after suspending them in 2024, declaring a final dividend of ₦0.06 per share.

Shareholders’ equity improved from a negative ₦458 billion position in 2024 to a positive ₦548.7 billion, and the company moved to a net cash position of ₦104.8 billion.

The sharp depreciation of the naira during 2024 had significantly eroded earnings at the Nigerian unit due to foreign exchange losses. However, with the local currency showing relative stability in recent months, Nigeria has once again emerged as a major contributor to group profitability. Free cash flow rose 215.5 per cent to ₦1.2 trillion, even as capital expenditure more than doubled to ₦1 trillion.

MTN Ghana also delivered strong results, posting a 36.2 per cent year-on-year increase in service revenue to GH₵24.4 billion. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation rose 43.5 per cent to GH₵14.7 billion, with the EBITDA margin expanding by 3.0 percentage points to 60.1 per cent.

Profit after tax surged 55.9 per cent to GH₵7.8 billion, while earnings per share increased 55.9 per cent to GH₵0.5923. The company paid GH₵10.5 billion in direct and indirect taxes and GH₵1.3 billion in fees and levies to government agencies.

MTN Ghana plans to build 500 new network sites in 2026 and expects to maintain service revenue growth in the mid-to-upper 30s percentage range.

The strong performance from MTN’s two largest West African operations is being reflected in the group’s share price, which has rallied to multi-year highs on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, gaining approximately 77 per cent over the past 12 months as investors price in the restoration of profitability and cash flow generation.

MTN Group’s full-year results, which will include restated figures for MTN Ghana, are expected to be published on March 16, 2026. The company said its South African operations continued to navigate increased competitive pressures in its prepaid business, though positive operational and financial momentum in several other markets supported the group’s overall performance.

While the earnings rebound is dramatic, analysts caution that a significant portion of the turnaround reflects macroeconomic normalization, particularly foreign exchange stabilization rather than purely organic margin expansion. Sustainability depends on continued currency stability in Nigeria, where inflation remains elevated at 33.1% on average in 2024, and on whether data demand growth can be sustained at current rates.

MTN Nigeria’s FX gain of ₦1.1 trillion was material to the bottom-line swing, and the company reduced its FX loan exposure to just $105 million. However, Nigeria remains a high-risk market, with currency instability, inflation, and regulatory unpredictability continuing to loom large over long-term profitability.

For now, the message from Johannesburg is clear: West Africa is back. Whether it stays that way will depend on factors largely outside MTN’s control, including central bank policy, inflation trajectories, and the broader macroeconomic environment across its largest markets.

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