The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has published draft competition regulations that would prohibit petroleum companies from fixing fuel prices, coordinating pump margins, sharing markets, rigging bids or creating artificial scarcity, in what would represent the most comprehensive anti-collusion framework ever introduced in Nigeria's downstream petroleum sector.

The proposed Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations, 2026, were published Thursday in a public notice signed by NMDPRA Chief Executive Rabiu Umar, who invited licensees, permit holders and other stakeholders to submit comments within 21 days, in line with Section 216(1) of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which mandates stakeholder consultation before regulations are finalised. A formal consultation forum is scheduled for September 22, 2026 at the Authority's headquarters in Abuja.

The draft regulations would outlaw collusive agreements among petroleum companies across six specific categories: pump price coordination, including coordinated ex-depot prices, margins, discounts and freight charges; market allocation, prohibiting competitors from dividing customers, territories or supply areas; bid rigging in procurement; supply restrictions that jointly reduce imports or production to create scarcity; tacit collusion through trade associations or public price signalling; and restrictive arrangements that limit smaller operators' access to the market.

The timing is not coincidental. The move comes directly after allegations by independent petroleum marketers in July that major fuel importers holding Q3 2026 import licences were selling Premium Motor Spirit at coordinated depot prices of ₦1,350 per litre, significantly above Dangote Refinery's ₦1,075 per litre gantry price at the time. IPMAN had called on the NMDPRA to urgently review those licences, arguing that the importers' pricing was counterproductive, consuming foreign exchange while pushing pump prices higher and undermining the competitive pressure the import licences were issued to create. The regulations the authority has now published are a direct regulatory response to that complaint.

If adopted, the rules would give the NMDPRA powers to investigate and sanction anti-competitive conduct that it currently lacks in any codified form, reinforcing the deregulated market framework introduced under the PIA 2021 and the fuel subsidy removal of 2023. The absence of such a framework has been one of the structural vulnerabilities of Nigeria's post-subsidy petroleum market: removing price controls without introducing competition rules creates a gap in which coordinated pricing by a small number of licensed importers can replicate the market distortions that price controls were supposed to prevent.

The draft regulations are proposals, not law. The 21-day comment period and the September consultation forum mean that final rules are unlikely to take effect before the fourth quarter of 2026 at the earliest. Between now and then, the downstream pricing dynamics that triggered the regulations remain unchanged: importers hold Q3 licences, Dangote Refinery continues to set the domestic price benchmark, and the gap between the two is still being paid by Nigerian motorists at the pump. The NMDPRA has now made its diagnosis of the problem official. What the consultation process will reveal is whether the companies being regulated agree with it, and whether the authority has the enforcement infrastructure to make the rules mean something once they are finalised.

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