The South African government moved Monday to reassure the public that the country faces no immediate risk of fuel shortages despite rising global oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, even as it warned that motorists should brace for significantly higher pump prices from April.

In a media statement, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said it remains in continuous contact with oil companies operating in the country to ensure stability and security of fuel supply, while closely monitoring developments in West Asia and their potential impact on global oil markets.

“While prolonged geopolitical tensions may exert pressure on international oil prices, the department wishes to assure the public that there is currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa,” the statement read.

Despite the closure of several refineries in recent years, South Africa currently operates two crude oil refineries, Natref and Astron Energy, alongside Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids plant, which continues to play a critical role in domestic fuel production.

These facilities rely on crude oil imports, sourced primarily from West Africa and increasingly from other parts of the African continent.

The department confirmed that Astron Energy’s refinery is currently undergoing a planned maintenance shutdown. However, as part of standard operational planning, the company has secured sufficient fuel imports to meet supply requirements during the maintenance period.

Oil companies importing refined petroleum products from countries affected by the conflict are also actively exploring alternative supply sources to ensure uninterrupted fuel availability.

While supply remains stable, the department was explicit about the pricing outlook. “The continued rise in international crude oil prices is expected to result in higher fuel prices at the pump from April 2026.

The under-recovery on fuel prices has been fluctuating since the onset of the conflict, and the department will continue to monitor the situation closely,” the statement said.

The warning follows a sharp spike in Brent crude oil prices. In early March, prices were averaging around $69 per barrel. Following the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran in late February, Brent crude surged past $115 per barrel, a jump that typically translates to roughly 25 to 30 cents per litre at the pump for every $1 increase in oil prices.

Compounding the pressure is currency volatility. The rand slipped to R16.86 to the dollar in early March, making every barrel more expensive for South Africa to import. Economists estimate that for every 10-cent move in the exchange rate, the fuel price shifts by about six to 10 cents per litre.

April is also historically the month when the National Treasury implements its annual adjustments to fuel levies. For 2026, this includes increases to the carbon fuel levy rising to 19 cents per litre for petrol and 23 cents per litre for diesel, adding further upward pressure on pump prices.

South African motorists have already felt the impact of rising oil prices. On March 4, fuel prices increased across the board: petrol by 20 cents per litre, diesel by 62–65 cents per litre, and illuminating paraffin by 44 cents per litre.

The increases were attributed to rising Brent crude oil prices driven by geopolitical uncertainty, higher shipping rates, and the potential for crude oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe noted at the time that average Brent crude prices rose from $64.08 to $69.08 during the review period, while the rand appreciated slightly from R16.31 to R16.00 against the dollar, offering only marginal relief.

While the government insists supply is stable, experts warn that South Africa’s fuel reserves are thinner than many realise. Analysts estimate that if imports stopped completely, the country’s total accessible fuel supply could last around 30 days under normal conditions, comprising commercial supply (covering 7 to 14 days) and strategic reserves (covering about 20 to 21 days).

This falls far short of the 90-day benchmark maintained by countries in the European Union and the United States. Within two to three weeks of an import shutdown, serious diesel shortages could begin, threatening transport, agriculture, mining, and food supply chains.

For now, the message from the government is clear: supply is secure, but prices are not. Motorists should expect significant pump price increases in April as the combined impact of surging oil prices, currency volatility, and annual levy adjustments hits South African fuel markets.

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